L'euro commence la séance dans le rouge suite au mauvais PIB trimestriel français

Écrit par Administrator

Vendredi, 12 Août 2011 10:06

La défiance des investisseurs envers tous les marchés boursiers mondiaux se ressent sur la parité EURUSD, dans un contexte de volatilité qui n'est pas sans rappeler les pires moments de la crise des subprimes. DONNEES CHIFFREES EN COURS DE SEANCE : Cours d’ouverture : 1.4218 USD Cours actuel (à 12h, heure de Paris): 1.4238 DONNEES MACRO-ECONOMIQUES IMPORTANTES DU JOUR Nouvel après-midi placé sous le signe des Etats-Unis avec à 14H30 les ventes au détail qui sont attendues, selon le consensus, à 0.5% contre 0.1% précédemment. Puis, à 15H55, il conviendra de surveiller la publication de l'indice de confiance de l'Université du Michigan qui est prévu à 63.2 contre 63.7 précédemment. ANALYSE FONDAMENTALE EURUSD La défiance manifeste des investisseurs a un impact très conséquent sur les changes, provoquant une volatilité record sur l'EURUSD. De mauvais indicateurs macroéconomiques européens ont accentué la baisse de l'euro, notamment la publication d'un PIB trimestriel pour la France qui est ressorti à 0% comme nous l'anticipions hier. Si la croissance peine à repartir aux Etats-Unis, il semblerait que ce soit aussi le cas en France et plus globalement dans toute l'Europe. Sous l'effet des mesures d'austérité, la Grèce a connu un recul de son PIB de 6.9% au deuxième trimestre tandis que la production industrielle a baissé de 0.7% en juin dans la zone euro. Les indicateurs nationaux européens montrent tous un phénomène de ralentissement avec une baisse de 1.6% de la production en France, de 5.8% au Danemark ou encore de 3.5% au Portugal. Afin de faire face à la volatilité croissante, l'AMF, en pleine panique, a décidé d'interdire la vente à découvert sur une quinzaine de valeurs du CAC40, principalement des bancaires, afin d'endiguer la chute des cours. Des enquêtes devraient être menées en France et aux Etats-Unis d'après la SEC et l'AMF afin de comprendre cette chute brutale des marchés mondiaux. ANALYSE TECHNIQUE ET GRAPHIQUE Le 1440M est neutre. En intraday l’achat est de mise. Toutefois, la prudence est préconisée en raison d’une très forte volatilité puisque l'EURUSD a joué au yoyo, passant de 1.4222 à 8h55 avant de dégringoler à 1.4155 à l'ouverture de la Bourse de Paris puis de remonter à 1.4252 au moment où nous écrivons. Néanmoins, avec un point pivot à 1.4222 il est possible de jouer la résistance à 1.4245-14265 avec un plus haut à 1.4288 en cas d'annonce qui viendrait calmer les marchés financiers. from  http://www.forex.fr/analyse-technique-forex/3982-leuro-commence-la-seance-dans-le-rouge-suite-au-mauvais-pib-trimestriel-francais

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FXCM France est enregistrée auprès de l’Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (ACP) en tant que succursale de Forex Capital Markets, Ltd sous le numéro 19843. En outre, FXCM est également soumis aux autorités de régulation suivantes dans les domaines respectivement cités :

• Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (« ACP ») - Régulation anti-blanchiment d'argent
• Autorité des Marchés Financiers (« AMF ») - Règles de conduite et Principes d'Exécutio

De plus, la commission de la FSA exige de remplir des standards financiers très stricts, parmi lesquels un certain minimum de capital. Régulièrement, les experts de cet organisme exigent que nous leur soumettions des rapports financiers.
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Informations Générales

Adresse 1:	Forex Capital Markets Ltd.
Adresse 2:	4 avenue hoche
Ville:	Paris
code postal:	75008
email:	francais@fxcm.com
Téléphone:	+0800 90 95 44
En ligne depuis:	1999
Dépôt minimum:	2000€

Spreads

• USD CHF - 3
• GBP USD - 3
• USD JPY – 2.4
• EUR GBP – 3.2
• EUR JPY – 3.1
• EUR USD – 2.3

 

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Panic brings short term relationships closer

THE CORRELATIONS CORNER (week-ending 08.12.11)

Updated Aug 12, 2011 6:30:00 PM By Daniel Hwang, Senior Currency Strategist

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Panic brings short term relationships closer

SHORT TERM CORRELATIONS (14-Day & 1-Month)
On Monday, risk aversion reared its ugly head instilling fear and panic in the sentiments of all. However, a knight in shining armor rode to the rescue upon the next day’s arrival and reassured the masses of continued support for another two years at the very least. Sentiments improved and confidence was restored. But when the new day began, risk aversion returned with a vengeance - this time from the continent of Europe. Once again markets cowered in fear and panic once again reached extreme levels ( as did French credit default swaps). As the week drew to a close, however, calmer minds prevailed and sentiments stabilized as the beast out of Europe proved to be more fiction than fact and data out of the US provided some signs of recovery.
In volatile times, relationships either strengthen or sour. This past week was one of epic proportions (in terms of US equity market volatility) and the widespread fear led to most relationships tightening in response. After all was said and done, US stocks and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) shared  drew closer together as did crude oil with JPY pairs. However, almost all those in FX-land shunned US 2-yr yields resulting in either weaker or a complete reversal of longer term relations (2-wk relative to 4-wk correlation coefficients).
The next chapter in the ongoing global growth risks saga begins next week. It’s hard to imagine another week as jam packed – absurd volatility in US stocks, speculation of another sovereign AAA credit ratings downgrade, a central bank commit to a minimum of 2 years of exceptionally low rates, another central bank take aggressive measures to devalue its currency, potential negative rates in the safest of FX safe havens, higher margin requirements on the most precious of metals, and short sale bans on financials in four countries - with such rapid pace and action as just ended. Nevertheless, price action next week may provide some clarity as to whether this global growth risks saga will have a happy, tragic, or neutral ending.

• Commodities-FX: AUD/CAD tracked best with crude oil at +0.68 (14-day) & AUD/JPY best with gold at -0.85 (14-day)
• U.S. equities-FX: S&P500 tightest with AUD/USD at +0.98 (14-day) & NZD/USD at +0.96 (14-day)
• UST Yields-FX: U.S. 2 yr. yields & EUR/USD short term (14-day) correlation coefficients completely reversed to -0.75
• FX-FX: Oceanic neighbors on the same page again as AUD/USD & NZD/USD tracked best among majors at +0.95 (14-day)

MEDIUM/LONG TERM CORRELATIONS (3-m & 1-yr)

The Correlations Corner (Calculations & Settings)

• Correlation coefficients calculations based on daily percent change for the specified time period.
• Two grids separated by time periods:
• S/T (short term): Bi-weekly = 14 days &  Monthly = 30 days
• M/T (medium term)- L/T (long term) : Quarterly = 90 days & Yearly = 365 days
• Currency pairs listed in black print ; other assets listed in blue print.
• Correlation coefficients greater than +.75 (strong positive) or less than -.75 (strong inverse) are highlighted in bold print.
• Coefficients shaded by varying tones of blue and red:

• Shading format - column based to allow visual representations for strengthening, weakening, and reversing relationships for the specified asset/currency pair (column) against the vertically listed currencies/assets (rows) . For example, the darkest shade of blue within a column (S&P500) denotes the specific security in that row (ex. USD/MXN Wkly) as the best correlated with the S&P500.
• Shading format - column based also allows visual representations of correlation breakdowns, reversals, & strength as time progresses. For example, a darker shade of blue for the weekly coefficient relative to the monthly coefficient suggests a strengthening positive correlation while a lighter shade of blue for the weekly coefficient relative to the monthly coefficient suggests a weakening correlation. A complete change in color from red to blue or vice versa suggests a complete reversal from the prior relationship.
• Other Assets: USOIL (WTI), UKOIL (Brent), JPNNKY (Nikkei 225), GMNDAX (German DAX 30), US2YY (US government. 2 yr. yields), US10YY (US gvmt. 10 yr. yields)

Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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Cyprus is the third largest island that is located at the crossroads of three vibrant continents - Europe, Africa and Asia.  It is known as one of the thriving international business hubs in the Mediterranean region.

Cyprus’ strategic location and its accession as a full member of the EU as of May 2004 have made stringent law and ethics common in the workplace. First class commercial infrastructure, corporate tax incentives, low interest rates and inflation together with a strong workforce have all contributed in making Cyprus a dominant business centre in the Mediterranean. The market economy is dominated primarily by the services sector where tourism and financial services account for nearly 80% of the country’s GDP.

Over the years, the Cyprus Government has put in place the necessary legal framework along with the Central Bank of Cyprus setting guidelines designed to prevent and combat money laundering. These were placed in order to protect Cyprus’s exemplary operation as a business center and enhance its further development and security. Moreover, Cyprus is committed to apply all the requirements of international treaties and standards in this area, specifically those deriving from the European Union Directives.

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